Signal and the Noise

The International Bestseller by ’The Galileo of number crunchers’ (Independent)Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a seconddate, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a predictionabout the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters,we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at greatcost to society. The rise of ’big data’ has the potential to help uspredict the future, yet much of it is misleading, useless ordistracting.In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the resultsof every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all developbetter foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to thepoker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on anenthralling insider’s tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting,showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise ofdata.’Remarkable and rewarding’ Matthew D’Ancona, Sunday Telegraph’A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically’ Guardian